2018년 2월 22일 목요일

Interest rate, exchange rate and commodity price trend in 2018.


(All figures in the figure are zero)
0 (2%) = interest rate (-) + (dollar weakness + commodity price)
0 (2%) = deflation factor + inflation factor


Interest rate, exchange rate and commodity price trend in 2018.

Fed's forward guidance, rate hikes 3-5 times.





Exchange rate flow.

Dollar index 90-> 80
Yen 100-> 90
Chinese Yuan 6.2-> 6 
KRW 1000-> 900


연준의 포워드 가이던스 ,금리인상 3~5회.
달러지수 90-> 80 
엔화  100->90
위안화 6.2->6
원화 1000->900

*Substantial tightening elements of the individual countries is currency appreciation.

*The adjustment of the inflation rate is adjusted more than 99% by exchange rate.

Global commodity prices.


 Low and high prices are gradually rising.
저점과 고점가격이 한단계 상승한다.

The oil index (WTI) is around 100 at the dollar index 80.



Interest rate flow
Fed's forward guidance, rate hikes 3-5 times.

Adjustment of inflation rate of individual countries = Dollar weakness = Strong currency (0 interest rate hikes or one time)