The monetary economic system carries a fatal flaw: a gradual decline in liquidity, which can trigger a "liquidity crisis" and lead to the collapse of the entire system. Such a crisis can emerge simply with the passage of time, or it can be precipitated by the bankruptcy of nations, corporations, or individuals—or by the total depletion of national fiscal resources in an environment of zero interest rates.
To prevent the collapse of the monetary system, central banks were established, ensuring a gradual, ongoing increase in the money supply (M2).
What, then, would have happened had liquidity not been expanded? Wealth would have become permanently entrenched, likely preserving systems like slavery; furthermore, the development of democracy, access to education, and the broader benefits of civilization would not have been possible.
TIP. An unavoidable aspect: If liquidity is not increased, the system will collapse, rendering everyone—rich and poor alike—equal (potentially including the extinction of humanity).
In short, because a monetary economic system is inherently prone to collapse via a "liquidity crisis" over time, specific mechanisms are required to counteract this—ranked by their impact on liquidity: exchange rates (a strong dollar having a 100% effect), oil and natural gas prices (50–60% effect), and a decline in government bond yields (20–30% effect).
For instance, how should one address the loss of purchasing power and the contraction of market liquidity (a liquidity crisis) that arise when oil and natural gas prices skyrocket, fueling high inflation?
[See attached image.] In the case of Switzerland, the government’s fiscal capacity is effectively exhausted, and interest rates are already near zero; therefore, further reductions in government bond yields are impossible. To prevent a liquidity crisis—such as one triggered by a surge in oil and natural gas prices—the country must achieve a 100% liquidity-boosting effect through the strengthening of its currency.
Given this, if the US dollar remains range-bound while the prices of oil and raw materials rise (which effectively reduces liquidity by 50–60%), how should the Eurozone respond to avert a liquidity crisis?
Simply lowering interest rates—which provides only a 20–30% liquidity boost—is insufficient. While accelerating rate cuts might offer some protection against a liquidity crisis, it would also squander the available policy space; as rates approach zero, the nation’s fiscal capacity would be completely depleted, potentially accelerating a descent into a major economic depression.
Consequently, if oil and natural gas prices begin to rise significantly, a strengthening of the euro—which provides a 100% liquidity-boosting effect (via exchange rate dynamics)—becomes essential.
Currently, with the US dollar in a range-bound state, the Eurozone is attempting to mitigate a potential liquidity crisis by lowering government bond yields—a measure that provides only a marginal increase in liquidity. Relying on such an approach, without the 100% liquidity-boosting effect that comes from a stronger currency, risks shortening the lifespan of the existing economic system. The deeper issue lies in the fundamental mechanics of exchange rates: periods of low inflation have historically been associated with a strong dollar (from 2009 to the present), while periods of high inflation have been linked to a weak dollar. This suggests a need to normalize the long-standing imbalance in exchange rates.
Ultimately, for the sake of monetary parity and non-discrimination—and to extend the lifespan of the current system while preventing its collapse—a shift toward a significantly stronger euro is inevitable.
Compounding this problem is the fact that, since 2009, the prices of oil and natural gas have failed to adjust to the decline in currency value caused by the expansion of the money supply. Producers have been forced to supply these commodities at prices below their actual production costs—costs that have steadily risen due to inflation, now reaching the 80–90 range. In short, because oil and natural gas prices can no longer be pushed lower, a transition to a much stronger euro (and a correspondingly weaker dollar) has become a desperate necessity to prevent the system from collapsing under a liquidity crisis.
Reflecting on the history of our monetary and economic systems, we must recognize why we transitioned away from slavery toward democracy and the benefits of modern civilization. We should also acknowledge that, in the grand scheme of things, we may be little more than expendable components—a realization that should drive us to focus on the singular goal of surviving the structural adjustments of the impending Great Depression.
(원문)
화폐경제시스템은 치명적인 단점을 가지고있는데, 바로 유동성이 점차 감소해서 시스템붕괴를 일으키는 유동성위기가 발생한다는것입니다.
"유동성위기" 란 그냥 감만히 시간이 흘러도 발생할수있고,국가,기업,개인의 파산이나 제로금리의 국가재정의완전고갈로도 만들어집니다.
이런 치명적인 단점때문에, 화폐시스템이 붕괴하지않도록 중앙은행이 탄생했고 , 통화공급량(M2)이 점진적으로 증가하는것입니다.
그러면, 만약 유동성이 줄지않았다면 어떻게 되었을까요?
부의 고착화가 진행되어서 노예제도는 지금도 유지되었을테고, 민주주의제도나 교육및문명혜택을 받을수없었을것입니다.
TIP. 어쩔수없는 측면 -> 유동성을 증가시키지않으면 시스템이 붕괴되어 부자던가난하자든 모두가 평등해진다.(인류멸망포함)
결과적으로,
화폐경제시스템은 그냥 가만히 시간이 지나도 "유동성위기"로 붕괴되기때문에 이를 예방하기위해서 유동성규모순으로 환율(달러강세 100%효과)> 유가및천연가스(50~60%효과)>국채금리하락(20~30%효과)가 반드시 필요하게됩니다.
예)를 들면 유가와 천연가스가 폭등하여 높아지는 인플레이션에 대한 구매력감소및시장의 유동성감소(유동성위기)를 뭘로 예방해야할까요?
그림첨부.
스위스같은 경우는
정부재정의 완전고갈영역의 제로금리부근에 있기때문에 국채금리인하가 불가능하며, 반드시 통화강세의 100%유동성증가효과를 가져야 유가및천연가스상승의 유동성위기를 예방할수있습니다.
그러면, 달러가 박스권일때 유가와 원자재(50~60%유동성감소효과)가 상승한다면 ,
유로는 유동성위기를 예방하기위해 어떻게 움직여야할까요?
단순히 금리하락(유동성20~30%효과)으론 모자르기때문에, 두배정도 금리인하를 가속화하면, 어느정도 유동성위기예방이 가능하지만 이는 금리인하의 낭비로 인해서 제로금리에 가까워지면서 국가의 재정여력이 완전고갈되는 대공황상황에 빠르게 도달할수있다는것입니다.
그래서, 유가및천연가스가 본격적으로 상승하기 시작하면, 반드시 유로화 강세(100%)의 유동성증가효과(환율에따른 )가 필요하다는것입니다.
지금 달러의 BOX권환경에서,
유로는 유동성위기를 예방하기위해서, 국채의 금리를 하락시켜 유동성을 아주 작게 보충하고있는데, 100%유동성증가효과의 통화강세없이 유동성위기를 해결하려는 시도는 시스템의 수명을 목표수명보다 단축시킬수있다는것입니다.
더문제는 환율의 원리상
저물가영역 - 달러강세 (2009~2026현재까지),
고물가영역 - 달러약세 로,너무 오랬동안 빌려준 환율의 불균형을 정상화해야한다는것입니다.
결국 유로는 화폐의 평등함과 차별없음을 감안하면, 시스템의 수명연장과 붕괴예방을위해서 강력한 유로화강세환경으로 전환할수밖에 없다는것입니다.
더욱문제는 유가와 천연가스는 2009년부터 현재까지 통화공급량에 맞는 적정화폐가치하락을 수렴하지못하고 생산기업이 원가이하로 희생하면서 공급중인데, 그동안 인플레이션으로 계속 원가가 상승해서 대략 80~90수준에 도달하고있다는것입니다. 즉, 이제 유가와 천연가스를 더이상 내릴수없기때문에 유로가 유동성위기로 붕괴하지않으려면 반드시 강력한 유로화강세(강력한 달러약세)로 전환할수밖에 없는 처절한 위기상황이라는것입니다.
화폐경제시스템의 역사에서 , 왜 우리가 노예제도환경에서 해방되어 민주주의를 만들고, 문명혜택을 누리고있는지 깨달아야하며, 우리자신은 그저 어쩌면 소모품일수밖에 없다는것을 인지해서 다가오는 대공황의 구조조정에서 생존해야하는 목적을 가져야한다 생각하셨으면합니다.
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