Write the answer to the problem in the comments.

 

TIP.1

a) Excess Inflation Environment

10-Year Treasury Yield (Money Supply & Liquidity Indicator) < Base Interest Rate (Inflation Indicator)

b) Optimal Price Environment

10-Year Treasury Yield (Money Supply & Liquidity Indicator) = Base Interest Rate (Inflation Indicator)

c) Tightening & Deflation Environment

10-Year Treasury Yield (Money Supply & Liquidity Indicator) > Base Interest Rate (Inflation Indicator)

TIP.2

d) Currency appreciation -> Liquidity-increasing effect; Ex. 1) Increased purchasing power, lower commodity prices (based on oil and natural gas)

e) Currency depreciation -> Liquidity-decreasing effect; Ex. 1) Decreased purchasing power, higher commodity prices (based on oil and natural gas)

TIP.3

TIP.4

US Interest Rate Hike on September 16 (Revealing the Limits of Monetary Tightening)

After the intensity of tightening rose from 0 to 1.25 between February 2026 and the period leading up to the hike,

the September 16 rate hike resulted in a tightening intensity of 0.95, marking a weakening of the stance.

Consequently,

it has become impossible for the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the benchmark interest rate (representing tightening intensity) to exceed 0.95 in the US.

Going forward, if the dollar weakens and tightening intensity drops below 0.95, US liquidity could be completely depleted, potentially causing the "Dollar Box Range 3" to collapse.

(Currently, the remaining US liquidity headroom lies within the 0 to 0.95 range.)

Question: When will the "Dollar Box Range 3" collapse and the Dollar Index reach the 90–95 level?

Please work out your own answer and post it in the comments.