Complete financial depletion caused by interest rates(금리로인한 완전한 재정적고갈)

 

Around the time of the Great Depression a century ago, the interest rate level at which the U.S. government would have faced complete fiscal depletion was approximately 2%.

In theory, if a central bank were to manage inflation with absolute precision, the point of total fiscal depletion for a government should occur at an interest rate of 0%—though, in reality, achieving such precision is far from easy.

What about the situation in 2026? Given the technological advancements our civilization has made, shouldn't things be different now?

There is a way to gauge how much a government’s fiscal capacity—in relation to interest rates—has improved.

As shown in the chart, there is a trend line representing the "appropriate" interest rate, which has been gradually declining. Currently, this appropriate rate sits at approximately 0.6%.

Because currency is inherently neutral and non-discriminatory, the fact that nations have managed to sustain interest rates near this 0.6% threshold—even while facing the constraints of monetary tightening during a period of a strong U.S. dollar—suggests something significant. It implies that even as interest rates potentially decline during a phase of a weakening U.S. dollar, it may be possible to avoid complete fiscal depletion, even at levels near 0.6%.

The challenge, however, is that while one might feel confident that rates could be lowered toward that 0.6% mark during a period of dollar weakness, the unique circumstances faced by each individual nation suggest that—no matter how much effort is applied—going any lower than this may simply be impossible. Perhaps, if the exact same situation were to arise 100 years into the future, it might be possible to reach the theoretical figure of 0%—thanks to an environment of extremely precise monetary policy. Should that happen, the lifespan of the monetary system would be extended dramatically, well beyond its current average of 100 years.

원문

100년전 대공황부근에서 금리로인한 미국정부 재정적 완전 고갈지점은  2%부근이었습니다. 

중앙은행이  인플레이션을 매우 디테일하게 관리했다면 ,

이론적으로 정부재정이 완전고갈되는 지점은 금리 0%이어야하지만, 현실에선 쉬운일이 아니라는것이다.

2026년 의 지금은 어떨까?  문명이 기술적으로 발전했기때문에 

지금은 다르지 않을까?

정부의 금리로인한 재정적능력이 얼마나 나아졌는지 알수있는방법이 있습니다.

그림을 보시면 점진적으로 하락하는   적정금리추세선이 그어져있는데

현재의 적정금리는 대략 0.6%부근에 와있다는것을 알수있습니다.

화폐는 공평하고 차별이 없기때문에  달러강세시기 개별국이 긴축한계의 어려움속에서  적정금리추세선환경에서0.6%수준까지  유지해왔다는것은,  화폐의 평등과 차별없음을 감안할때 본격적인 달러약세시기에 금리는 점차하락하더라도  0.6%부근까지 재정적으로 완전고갈이 안될수가 있다는것입니다.

문제는 달러약세시기 0.6%부근까지 내릴수있다는  자신감을 가지게되지만,

국가마다 처한 상황이 다르기때문에 아무리 노력해도  이이상은 불가능하지않나싶습니다.

 아마도  미래 100년이후에 똑같은 상황이 발생한다면  극한의 정밀한 통화정책환경때문 이론적수치인 0%에 도달할수있지않을까 싶습니다.그렇게 된다면 화폐시스템은 평균100년을 넘어서서 비약적으로 연장될것입니다.